Part V: The Reckoning

Fallout, Diplomacy, and What Comes Next

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This article is part of “Operation Spider’s Web,” a five-part report examining Ukraine’s long-range sabotage strike on Russian bomber bases.

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In the hours after Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine's allies stayed largely silent. No public congratulations. No condemnations either. And no finger-pointing about where the drones came from or who might have helped. This was by design. Ukraine didn’t use NATO missiles. It didn’t fly across the border. It launched a precision raid from within Russian territory—and proved it could do so without anyone else's permission.

At the same time, Ukrainian officials were on a different stage: Istanbul, for the second round of tentative peace talks.

Talks Amid the Rubble

The timing could hardly have been more surreal. While Russian airbases still smoldered, delegates from both countries sat across from each other at a long table in Turkey. Russia did not walk out. Ukraine did not gloat. Turkish officials confirmed the talks continued "despite the latest events."

The effect of the strike on diplomacy is still unclear. Some analysts believe it strengthened Ukraine’s position—proof that Kyiv can fight and negotiate at the same time. Others fear it hardened Russian resolve. But one thing is certain: the illusion of Russian invulnerability is gone.

If Ukraine can strike anywhere, then the old military math—range, deterrence, distance—starts to fall apart. And so does the diplomatic leverage that comes with it.

NATO Watches, and Learns

Western officials avoided comment, but military analysts did not. The operation was widely praised as a landmark in asymmetric warfare. It was precise. It was proportionate. It avoided civilian targets. And it was executed entirely with Ukraine’s own resources.

One former NATO commander called it "a masterclass in high-risk, low-cost strategic disruption."

The fact that it worked—and worked at such distance—will reshape doctrine. Not just in Ukraine. Across Europe.

The Moral Framing Collapses

Russia’s moral outrage rings hollow. These were bombers. They were loaded, parked, and prepped for attacks on civilian targets. Destroying them is not terrorism. It’s self-defense.

In the past, when special forces destroyed weapons depots or fuel lines behind enemy lines, they were celebrated. This was the same—but with drones.

And the real danger isn’t what Ukraine did. It’s what it revealed:

That a multi-billion-dollar air campaign can be halted by a plywood shed, a gamepad, and a camera drone.

Strategic Reset

Russia now faces a choice. It can escalate—risking more loss, more exposure, and possibly more humiliation. Or it can negotiate, knowing Ukraine has both reach and resilience.

Ukraine, for its part, has announced that this is just the beginning. More strikes may come. More risks may be taken. And if diplomacy fails, Spider’s Web may only be the first tug on the thread.

This wasn’t just an attack. It was a reckoning.

Some analysts worry it may harden Russia’s resolve—as if Putin has ever lacked it. But Ukraine doesn’t need to fear provoking a regime that has already razed its cities and murdered its civilians. Russian resolve is not a deterrent. It’s a pathology.

And every time Ukraine pulls off another strike like this, Russia’s air force shrinks—while Europe’s capacity to dominate the skies, should that time come, grows.

The next move belongs to Moscow… unless Ukraine is already making it.

Epilogue: Diplomacy, Still in Fog

Since the strike, Ukraine and Russia have met again in Istanbul. Despite the smoke and wreckage still hanging over Russia’s airbases, Moscow did not walk away from the table. But the June 2 talks yielded little more than a basic prisoner exchange agreement.

Ukraine pushed for a full ceasefire. Russia countered with a limited truce proposal—carefully worded, narrowly framed. It was not a peace offering. It was a placeholder.

Analysts who believe Ukraine's military success might derail diplomacy assume good faith on Russia's part. That assumption remains unearned. Putin has sacrificed tens of thousands of Russian lives for appearance’s sake. What deters him is not restraint. It’s defeat.

And so the reckoning continues.

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Thank you for reading this article on Operation Spider’s Web.
It ran a little long, so on the advice of a subscriber, I tried breaking it into parts to make it easier to navigate. I’d love to hear what you think—was it easy enough to follow? Any suggestions for making this kind of format work better next time?
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